Big Boost For Bertie

HOUSE Speaker Nancy Pelosi dropped a nice surprise for Taoiseach (Prime Minster) Bertie Ahern during last week's events surrounding the visit of the North's First Minister Ian Paisley and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.

The announcement that Ahern will address a joint session of Congress in early 2008 is a big boost to a politician who has been feeling the heat in Ireland because of the Mahon Tribunal investigation into allegations of corruption in Fianna Fail back in the 1980s and 1990s.

The joint session is a huge honor and shows clearly the clout that the Irish government enjoys in Washington. Very few countries get to receive the honor, but this is the second time in a little over a decade (John Bruton received the honor as taoiseach in 1996) that Ireland has been given the opportunity.

For Ahern himself, it completes a remarkable double. In May this year he addressed the British Parliament in a widely praised speech, becoming the first Irish leader to do so.

Pelosi has Irish connections herself. Her daughter is married to an Irish American whose parents live in Ireland, and two of her grandchildren, Liam and Molly, have been baptized there.

Speech Likely In April

MOST observers assumed Ahern would make the address to the joint session around St. Patrick's Day, but that is unlikely to happen because of a quirk in the calendar.

St. Patrick's Day and Easter are in the same week because of how early Easter falls this year. That means Congress will not be in session on the Tuesday before Easter which is when St. Pat's falls.

Thus the decision is likely to be that the address will take place in April when Congress is back in session.

This is probably good news for Ahern, who is under increasing pressure in Ireland to step down to make way for his likely successor Brian Cowen, currently minister for finance.

Ahern has already stated he will not lead his party into the next election and that he will stand aside, but it seems now the pressure is growing that that may happen sooner rather than later.

That pressure is likely to grow in the run-up to Christmas because Ahern is due to again face the tribunal the week before the holiday to give further evidence.

It does not seem like there is any smoking gun, but merely a pattern of evidence that Ahern played fast and loose with party funds.

In his defense it has to be said that all this occurred in the Charles Haughey era, when the boss was grabbing every opportunity to enrich himself and the climate was very different.

The speech means that Ahern is definitely safe until after he delivers it, as it would be a major embarrassment for Ireland if he was no longer in power.

Stayed Too Long?

OVERALL, Ahern appears to be suffering from the same political malaise that eventually gripped both Tony Blair and John Howard of Australia before they were replaced.

The staying too long in power syndrome is a difficult one to overcome and Ahern seemed immune to it, certainly after his smashing victory in this summer's general election.

Since then, however, the Mahon Tribunal and a weakening in the Irish economy have begun to play havoc with his popularity numbers.

The fall-off in property prices is especially worrying to Irish people who have made huge investments in the real estate market over the past decade.

The media, in the main, has also soured on Ahern, which is as much a function of boredom and a search for a new face as anything. He has been on top for over a decade, and the great triumphs of the Celtic Tiger and the North's peace process are behind him.

The upshot is that Ahern will be lucky to make it through 2008 with his leadership intact. Right now the betting would be that he will not, but then again he's not known as a the great survivor and Ireland's longest serving leader for nothing.

Who Will Succeed Bertie?

THE race to succeed Ahern is likely to feature Cowen as the odds on favorite, but Foreign Minster Dermot Ahern and Minster for Enterprise Michael Martin are also in the top echelon, as is Education Minister Mary Hanafin.

A dark horse has emerged in recent months in Brian Lenihan, the minister for justice who is having a very impressive tenure there.

Lenihan is the son of former Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister) Brian Lenihan and is probably too recent a front bench appointment this time around for the leadership. Conventional wisdom is that a taoiseach in waiting needs to have experience in a finance portfolio also.

However, Lenihan seems to be perfectly poised to be a contender in the future.