Bertie the Comeback Kid?

THE Irish Times poll which saw Fianna Fail and Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern jumping five points was a complete surprise to the media which had begun to write Ahern off.

Bertie Houdini may well have pulled off yet another stunning reversal in fortune. Before Christmas when he became embroiled in a financial scandal and right at the beginning of this campaign when he got off to a rocky start, the obituaries were being readied.

But all has now changed. After 10 years in power the Irish electorate, it seems, has not tired of Ahern in the way earlier opinion polls seemed to indicate.

With the election set for this Thursday, May 24, it may already be too late for the opposition parties to reverse the tide, but it has been such a surprising election campaign that anything is still liable to happen.

One fact remains clear. If the election is about the economy, as most elections are, then Ahern is the more likely winner.

However, if it is about weariness with the same faces after 10 years, or anger over the lack of delivery on health care and school class sizes, then the opposition has an outstanding chance of winning.

What is likely in the end is that it will not be clear who the next government will be in the immediate aftermath.

The only obvious winning combination, Fianna Fail and Labor, seems unlikely given the Labor leader Pat Rabbitte's insistence that he will not entertain such a pact.

The bookmakers still marginally believe that a Fine Gael-Labor-Green Party vote will be the ultimate government, but only barely. In other words, everyone is confused.

Sinn Fein In the Wings

SINN Fein are certainly waiting with bated breath for the result of this election. The party will likely win nine or 10 seats, up from five at present, which would put them in a very strong position if Fianna Fail need a coalition partner in that range.

Of course, Fianna Fail have sworn off any intent to partner with Sinn Fein because of the party's economic policies that Fianna Fail claims are socialist.

But if it means the difference between going into government and not, then Fianna Fail has been known in the past to wrestle with its conscience and win.

Certainly Sinn Fein and party leader Gerry Adams will be faced with a critical dilemma. There are many in the party who will want to stay outside government knowing that the junior partner in any coalition government is usually the fall guy for any reversals.

On the other hand, the notion of being in government both north and south is a very attractive one for the party that just a few years ago was decidedly on the outside looking in.

What Future for Adams?

IF Sinn Fein were to go into government in the south then Caoimhghin O Caolain, the party's leading TD (member of Parliament) in the south would be the key figure, likely as tanaiste (deputy prime minister).

With Martin McGuinness in the same role in the North it would raise the interesting question of the future of Gerry Adams. Having led the party to the promised land would Adams, still relatively young at 58, think about a life away from politics?

It is possible. He has certainly put in place a very strong leadership team behind McGuinness and O Caolain in both jurisdictions.

Young leaders such as Conor Murphy and Brigid Ruane in the north and Sean Crowe and Mary Lou McDonald in the south have many years in front of them in leadership positions.

It is a credit to Adams that the party has such a strong farm team in the event that changes are eventually contemplated.

Carter Set for Dublin

FORMER president Jimmy Carter was back in the headlines this week with a vitriolic attack on one of his successors, President George W. Bush.

Usually former presidents do not speak ill of each other, but Carter certainly shattered that tradition with his no holds barred condemnation of Bush's Iraq policy and lack of action on the Middle East.

Carter will be in Dublin in June to accept an honorary degree from the Royal College of Surgeons for his work on Third World poverty issues. No doubt he will be asked about his outburst against Bush when he is there.

Blair for Al Smith?

DURING his visit to Washington, D.C. last week outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair was approached to be the featured speaker at the Al Smith dinner in New York in October.

It would be an amazing coup for Al Smith IV, the inheritor of the dinner who has done such a superb job keeping it as one of America's most important and influential political events.

Blair would be an interesting choice, as it has usually been American-born leaders who have been asked to speak.

However, Blair is probably the most popular British leader in the U.S. of recent times and his invitation is not a total surprise. It looks like he just might go for it.