Simon Harris will call the General Election on Friday, November 8 for a polling day on November 29, senior Government sources have revealed.
A "short, sharp" campaign is deemed by senior Fine Gael managers as the best vehicle for the party to reach a target of 45 seats. But sources in the party believe that as many as 50 seats might be achievable, with some saying: "We’re going to party like it’s 2007" - and "romp" back into power, just as Bertie Ahern’s Fianna Fáil did.
With Sinn Féin stumbling from crisis to crisis and its leader Mary Lou McDonald refusing to conduct open press conferences, sources across Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Green Party are making bullish predictions.
One Cabinet source said: "We are trying to limit this kind of talk but our candidates and canvassers are reporting back that this campaign is very much like the 2007 one. That means there is a very, very positive [attitude] around returning the Government. Despite media attacks and controversy, Bertie Ahern romped home [in 2007].
"We’re saying it quietly, but what they’re saying is, 'We’re going to party like it’s 2007.'"
Debates
Extra understands there are at least three leaders’ debates planned, with one on Virgin TV’s The Tonight Show, as well as a number on RTÉ. And Fine Gael handlers are eager for the party to benefit from any "Harris hop" and get the Taoiseach to meet as "many people as possible personally."
In the 2007 general election, it was Mr. Ahern’s strength of personality that helped Fianna Fáil claim 78 seats, down just three on 2002.
And Fine Gael returned 51, up 20 seats, with the Labour Party then retaining its 20 seats in the Dáil.
Sinn Féin won just four seats in 2007 but, in 2020, went on to command its greatest electoral victory, amassing 37 seats – more than Fine Gael – but it lacked political will from the established parties in forming a government.
Sinn Féin
After a disappointing performance in the local elections, and a litany of crises in recent months, it remains to be seen what support Sinn Féin will now gather from the electorate.
The fate of their deputies will begin to be sealed in just over a fortnight, on November 8, when the Fine Gael leader will walk into Dáil Éireann to notify TDs that he will be asking President Michael D Higgins to dissolve the Dáil and allow a "short, sharp election campaign" of three weeks.
A small, elite cadre of aides around the Taoiseach are aware of the plans and this timetable has not been discussed with his fellow Coalition leaders, Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin, and the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman. Though there was broad agreement between the three men at their Monday leaders’ meeting that there will be an election in 2024, the final decision on a date is down to the Taoiseach.
Since Mr. Harris has expressed a preference for a Friday election day, there had also been speculation on the November 29 polling date, along with November 22 and December 6.
Mary Lou McDonald.
Short Campaign
While the confirmation from within the Department of An Taoiseach will focus minds, the revelation of a November 8 launch date will surprise many. This is a shorter election run than many expected.
"The Taoiseach wants a short campaign," said a senior Department of An Taoiseach official, "this allows for fewer political mistakes and, hopefully, sufficient time for our side to get their message across."
There is a belief that the Opposition will try and have a Dáil recess next week cancelled and the parliament recalled.
However, Government sources said this will fail. This would facilitate the quicker passing of the only major legislation required for an election: crucially the Finance Bill, to pave the way for financial changes made in the Budget, which will soon benefit many in their take-home pay with changes to the USC and tax bands.
Finance Ministers Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe are currently at an IMF conference in Washington DC. The Bill will be brought forward on November 5 and will be rushed through.
It is planned that Fine Gael will do 14 policy launches during the campaign. It is believed that some of the Taoiseach’s closest aides are unhappy with the number of staged events because, along with the number of days he will have to take off for leaders’ debates, it will limit Mr. Harris from his area of strength.
"We want Simon meeting as many people as possible, personally, which means canvassing on the streets and roads," said an aide, "we might try and cut down on some of the events he attends," a source said.
There are plans for at least three leaders’ debates during the election campaign. There will be two debates between the leaders’ of the three largest parties in the Dáil: Mr. Harris, Mr. Martin, and Ms. McDonald.
There will be at least one debate with the leaders of as many Dáil groupings as possible. With the election starting gun being fired here on November 8 and the poll taking place 21 days, it means just weeks will separate it from the presidential election in the United States on Tuesday, November 5.
Simon Harris.
US Influence
With the US result almost certain to be finalised, it will cast an influence on the tone of the campaign. The Coalition will be hoping that Kamala Harris and not Donald Trump comes through as the winner.
"A win for the forces of stability over the forces of populism will help our messaging here," said a Government source.
Meanwhile, it is believed that Sinn Féin leader Ms. McDonald will be advised by her team not to conduct an open press conference or what is known as a "doorstep" for the entire campaign.
Though Ms. McDonald has conducted a number of carefully selected broadcast media interviews since the series of controversies hitting her party since the end of September she has not held a press conference proper.
A Sinn Féin source said: "You can’t control those things, we’ve never been fans of them in the first place. But if Mary Lou has no-holds-barred, unmonitored press conferences, they will turn into total chaos."
These statements carry further echoes of the 2007 General Election, when an embattled Fianna Fáil leader Mr. Ahern avoided press conferences for the first week of the campaign to neutralise questioning about his finances.
When he finally broke his silence, at a press conference in Dublin’s Mansion House, journalist Vincent Browne turned the event into one of the most memorable ever in a general election.
Hints
Earlier this week, Fine Gael leader Mr. Harris hinted at this preferred polling day, remarking: "I like elections on a Friday. Friday is a good day to have an election. So therefore, there’s not that many Fridays to choose from.
"But right now, it’s important that people put their shoulders to the wheel in this place [Government Buildings] and in Leinster House and get the people’s work done, get the Finance Bill passed. We have a very busy agenda this week."
Fianna Fáil leader Mr. Martin said of legislation he would like to see passed before an election: "The Mental Health Bill, I would have wished to [see passed], but I think there are significant amendments to come on that, it might not even be ready for February. The Defamation Bill, again, has challenges, but I would like to see that move on to committee stage, if at all possible, in the lifetime of this Dáil."
*Originally published on Extra.ie.
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