Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) released its Population and Labour Force Projections 2023 - 2057 on Tuesday, July 16.

"This publication shows national population projections under various scenarios for the period 2023-2057 as well as Labour Force projections for the period 2023-2037,” Eva Leahy, Statistician in the Life Events and Demography Division, said.

“The projections illustrate potential future population trends given specific potential scenarios (termed assumptions) for fertility, mortality, and migration, as well as labour force participation.

"This release differs from previous iterations in having a total of three scenarios, based on low, medium, and high migration levels.

“There is an increase in population expected under all three potential scenarios. The size of the increase depends on which assumptions are being considered. 

“There is also an increase in the labour force expected. Again, the size of the increase depends on which assumptions are being considered. 

“It should be noted that while the assumptions/scenarios simply illustrate a range of possible scenarios, they are not attempts to forecast the future of population and migration patterns in Ireland.

“In determining these scenario parameters, the CSO both considered the most up-to-date data as well as the guidance of the Population and Labour Force Expert Group. The provides guidance in the process of establishing potential scenarios. Three meetings of the Expert Group took place between February and May 2024. 

“As always, the CSO is very grateful to the members of the Expert Group for their contributions both in terms of advice and in time."

Range of projected Irish Population expected to vary widely by 2057 depending on different migration scenarioshttps://t.co/5dXvfn0OlF#CSOIreland #Ireland #Population #PopulationEstimates #LabourForce #LabourForceEstimates

Tags @citizensinfo @davidmurphyRTE @IrelandAMVMTV pic.twitter.com/30GtcPqRmy

— Central Statistics Office Ireland (@CSOIreland) July 16, 2024

The CSO notes that its Population and Labour Force Projections release looks at three different potential population growth scenarios over the time period of 2023 - 2057. It is based on the 2022 Census.

Under the three different scenarios discussed by the Expert Group, the population by 2057 will reach 7.005 million, 6.446 million, and 5.734 million persons respectively. The key change in each of these scenarios is the net migration per annum. Assumptions regarding fertility and mortality remain constant across the three scenarios.

For each of the three scenarios, there appears to be a change from natural increase (i.e. more births than deaths within the population) in the population to a natural decrease (i.e. more deaths than births) in the population by the 2040s. The timing of this change depends on the scenario chosen.

The number of people aged 65 years and over is set to increase significantly over the period of these projections with the number of people in this age category set to reach over 1 million by 2030.

The Labour Force is projected to increase under all three potential population growth scenarios. The amount of growth depends on the scenario chosen.

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The assumptions agreed by the Expert Group to project the population forward from 2022 to 2057 and to project the labour force forward from 2022 to 2037 are summarised below.

Fertility Assumptions Agreed

Total fertility rate to decrease from 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037 and to remain constant thereafter to 2057.

Mortality Assumptions Agreed

Mortality rates for males and females are both assumed to improve at 2.5% per annum in the short-term to 2047.

The long-term rate of improvement is assumed to be 1.5% per annum (unchanged since the last report). The short-term rate declines linearly over a 25 year period to the long-term rate.

These rates are assumed to apply to all ages up to age 90.

These assumptions will result in gains in life expectancy from:

  • 80.2 years in 2022 to 86.2 years in 2057 for males.
  • 83.9 years in 2022 to 89.1 years in 2057 for females.

Migration Assumptions Agreed

Three migration scenarios were taken into consideration by the expert group:

  • M1: Net migration starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to +45,000 per annum by 2027 and remaining at this level to 2057.
  • M2: Net migration starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to +30,000 per annum by 2032 and remaining at this level to 2057.
  • M3: Net migration starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to +10,000 per annum by 2032 and remaining at this level to 2057.

Labour Force Assumptions Agreed

Persons aged 15 - 24:

  • Gentle increases in labour force participation anticipated for younger males and females (students and non-students).
  • Convergence between males and female labour force participation rates.
    3rd Level attendance – Student rates expected to remain broadly in line with 2022 levels to 2037.

Persons aged 25 – 74+:

  • Female participation in the labour force is no longer disaggregated by marital status.
  • Increased labour force participation across most 5 year age groups to 2037 for both males and females.
  • The largest percentage increases in labour force participation are projected within the older age cohorts.