Irish reunification will happen, Scotland's First Minister believes

Scotland's First Minister John Swinney said on Wednesday, September 18 that he agrees with former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that Irish reunification will happen.

Swinney was speaking after Sturgeon, who was Scotland's First Minister from November 2014 through March 2023, told BBC Scotland News on Wednesday: “I believe that, perhaps as part of a wider shake-up of UK governance, the reunification of Ireland, perhaps, more autonomy in Wales, that I think we will see Scotland become an independent country.

"I'll certainly campaign and advocate for that for as long as I've got breath in my body.”

Sturgeon was speaking with BBC Scotland News to mark the tenth anniversary of Scotland's 2014 Independence Referendum, which ultimately saw 55.3% of people vote against independence and 44.7% vote in favor.

Sturgeon is also the former head of the Scottish National Party (SNP) which, following victory in the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary election, has a mandate "to pave the way for a new referendum on Scottish independence."

When asked if she thought Irish reunification would come before Scottish independence, Sturgeon replied on Wednesday: “How do I know? I don’t have the ability to see into the future."

However, she added: “I think that will happen.

"It’s not a matter for me, obviously, just as Scottish independence is not a matter for people in Ireland, but I do think that will happen, and I think we will see over the next number of years - I’m not going to sit here and put a figure on that - what I would describe as a very healthy realignment of how the nations of the British Isles are governed and cooperate together.”

Later on Wednesday, First Minister Swinney, also a member of the SNP, was asked in light of Sturgeon's comments whether he agrees that Irish reunification and Scottish independence will go hand in hand.

“To be fair, I don’t actually think that’s what Nicola Sturgeon was saying that they will go hand in hand, but I think they will both happen, yes I do," Swinney said while taking questions at “For a Future Made in Scotland," an event marking ten years since the Independence Referendum, Swinney responded.

"So I agree with that point, very much so," he said.

“I think the tide and the pattern of those debates is moving decisively and emphatically in that direction.”

As per the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland's Secretary of State has the power to call a border poll "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

Upon his election in July, the UK's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he is "absolutely committed to the Good Friday Agreement." However, he also said last year said an Irish border poll is "absolutely hypothetical" and "not even on the horizon."

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, the nationalist party Sinn Féin is the largest party for the first time ever.

Despite this, opinion polls have not found overwhelming support for a border poll. In February, a LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph found that 49% of respondents in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK if a border poll was held within a week, while 39% would vote to leave the UK and join Ireland.

However, in Ireland, the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement said in July that preparation for referenda on Irish unification will be "a historic task" and called for "preparation to begin immediately."