Irish election a toss up as to which parties ends up in power

There was good news and bad news for Irish leader Enda Kenny in the latest opinion poll taken at the weekend by the Sunday Independent.

With about five months to an election the poll showed his Fine Gael Party streaking ahead reaching 29 percent their highest in a few years.

The bad news however is that the coalition partner Labour were hopelessly mired around seven per cent in the polls which makes it very difficult to see them returning to power with Fine Gael unless a slew of unruly independents are included.

Fianna Fail continued their steady climb back from oblivion after the financial crisis at 24 per cent while Sinn Fein polled an impressive 21 per cent despite continuous media barrages against them.

Independents were at 19 per cent but represent such diverse views that it is impossible to see them as a coherent unit.

Fine Gael plus Labour amount to only 36 per cent in the poll leaving it clearly apparent that, barring a miracle turnaround, the same combination will not be in power after the next election.

Labour knew the risk going into power, the reality has been that every minority party in recent coalition governments have been savaged by the electorate.

Indeed the Progressive Democrats are no more, the Green Party do not have a single member of the dial and Labour under one scenario could end up with exactly the same result -- i.e. wiped out.

The question then is who will FIne Gael coalesce with or will Enda Kenny seek to run a minority government and dare the other parties to bring him down and destabilise the political equation?

There are other possibilities of course, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would easily form a government together but that would represent such a radical departure given that Irish politics since 1921 has been based on the enmity between both sides.

Then there is a possible Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein coalition which would come close enough under this current poll that it could likely govern with a few independents.

Lastly there is a Fine Gael/Sinn Fein government, the strangest bedfellows of all, but one that would be no stranger than avowed Haughey hater and Fianna Fail party reject Dessie O'Malley agreeing to coalesce with Haughey and Fianna Fail when he formed the Progressive Democrats.

Even the Irish bookmakers seem confused with the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail combination favorite at even money, no bargain that.

Such a government would likely reorient Irish politics for ever into the traditional right/left division with Sinn Fein becoming the main opposition party.

That might well suit them best too as they seek to align their prospects North and South.

Sinn Fein play the long game better than any other party especially when you consider just a few years back they enjoyed only 2 per cent or so support North and South.

By 2020 or so it is likely Sinn Fein will be aiming full bore at getting into government in the Irish Republic but this 2016 election may be coming too soon.

Either way it will be guessing game until the day after the election when Ireland's complicated system of proportional representation may lead to a gap of several days before we know who is elected.

It is also worth noting that polls generally have become far less reliable lately as in the British election when none predicted the Tory clear cut victory nor did they predict when an utter outsider Jeremy Corbyn won the Labour Party leadership.

All to play for then and only months to go. Rarely has an election shaped up to be so full of surprises as this one. Like electorates everywhere there is a volatility that is very hard to predict. This one promises to throw up its share of shocks too.