The only sure thing we know about the race for the White House in 2016 is that we know nothing.
Despite the monstrous hype and the parade of articles evaluating Clinton, Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Paul, etc., the truth is none of it matters.
Fact is it is about a 50-50 proposition that Hillary Clinton or a Republican will win, no better no worse.
I have witnessed every presidential election in America since Carter/Ford in 1976 when I was here as a J-1 student for the first time.
The hype has grown hugely since back then but the fundamentals remain. Nobody knows anything this far out.
Carter came out of nowhere, a governor of Georgia no one gave a shot to. So did Bill Clinton, who was running a very poor third to New York Governor Mario Cuomo and Senator Gary Hart at this stage of the race in 1992.
May I remind you that at this stage in 2008 more Clinton people saw John Edwards as the real danger, not the one term senator from Illinois by the name of Barack Obama.
I know this -- I was one of the Clinton supporters who never saw Obama coming.
About 10 months from now with November 2016 in sight it will matter a great deal, but we are now shortly entering the phony war phase where the media will analyze, dissect, regurgitate bad facts, dissemble and no doubt pronounce everyone’s race over at one time or another.
There will be breathless accounts of how many billions each side will raise even though we know it will pretty much even out between them at the end.
We will all follow along because it is the ultimate game of thrones, except in this case the throne is the White House.
Most Americans are like folks everywhere else. They are busy living their lives and the political drumbeat for the White House is still a faint echo.
If the media were honest they would say acknowledge that nothing they write about Clinton right now -- the email scandal, Benghazi -- will change the equation that roughly half the country loves her and the other half detests her.
Ditto for the Bush dynasty and indeed politicians from either party.
America is split between red and blue and the polls are useful only at this point in reflecting that.
Polls from Iowa or New Hampshire and mythical match ups have as much relevance to the real thing as fantasy football has to the Super Bowl.
So enjoy the spectacle, look on it as a great game, played mostly for the peanut gallery also known as us in the media who need to fill our pages.
I admit I indulge every day and am dragged along in the slipstream of the greatest race on earth.
But don’t forget the finish line is out of sight just now and the checkered flag 18 months away. Nonetheless we can enjoy the “B” movie, but we must wait for the main feature to begin.
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