Election 2024: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael eye up Dáil without third party

Fianna  Fáil and Fine Gael are on track to form a new coalition in Election 2024 without the support of a third party, it emerged last night.

Despite an exit poll putting Micheál Martin’s party in third place behind Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil will be the largest party in the next Dáil and is expected to secure between 45 and 49 seats when all the votes are counted.

Fine Gael, meanwhile, is on track to capture between 37 and 41 seats. Sinn Féin is likely to take a similar number of seats, albeit on a far lower share of the vote than the party achieved in 2020.

With the two old Civil War rivals within touching distance of a majority, senior sources in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael last night said there was already a belief within the leadership of both parties that, if they fall just short of an overall majority, it is ‘preferable’ they form a coalition with the support of some Independents rather than a third party.

Internal FF/FG figures show Fianna Fáil will be the largest party in the 34th Dáil, with 21.9% of the vote. Fine Gael will come in at 20.5%, with Sinn Féin at 19.1%.

This means Sinn Féin will have lost nearly a fifth of its 2020 vote share of 24.5%.

Nov. 30, 2024. Taoiseach Simon Harris celebrates with his wife Caoimhe Wade and mother Mary Harris (red top) after retaining his seat, in the Shoreline counting centre in Wicklow. Credit: RollingNews.ie

Although Sinn Féin TDs were trying to paint their election performance as a success, their seat quota may not take a hit because they had more candidates in the field this time, and the result will come as a significant blow to leader Mary Lou McDonald’s credibility.

Counted votes last night pointed to significant errors in a muchvaunted exit poll which initially showed Fianna Fáil in third place.

Figures indicate it is possible that, if everything falls its way, Mr Martin’s party could take 49 seats, with Fine Gael securing up to 41 Dáil deputies. This would give the two parties a combined total figure of 90 and a Dáil majority.

Although many commentators were predicting negotiations between the outgoing Coalition partners and an improved Labour, there is a growing belief within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that this might not be necessary.

A Cabinet source said last night: ‘If we can get a majority or close to it, we will be focusing on the Independents. It is far less complicated and, more importantly, good for the country as it will significantly speed things up.

‘Micheál Martin has said that he would like to see a government formed before Donald Trump is inaugurated in the United States in late January. There is growing instability in the world. We don’t need to see it here, and we don’t need to add to the instability.’

Nov. 30, 2024. Sinn Fein Leader Mary Lou McDonald celebrates winning a seat with party colleague Cllr Janet Boylan at the RDS Count Centre in Dublin. Credit: RollingNews.ie

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael ministers spoke positively about a potential coalition with Labour in the lead-up to Friday’s vote.

But with Labour likely to win as many as nine seats, there was a reluctance among senior figures in the outgoing Coalition to enter negotiations with the party. The Social Democrats were predicted to get up to eight seats.

A Coalition source said: ‘[Labour leader] Ivana Bacik has said she wants to speak to parties of the left first, and that’s fine, but it’s really going to elongate things if we get into talks with Labour. Even if you had a straight majority between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, it is unlikely you’d get a coalition formed before Christmas.

With Independents such as Michael Lowry and Seán Canney – who have been strongly associated with supporting various governments in recent years – re-elected on strong votes, there are several candidates available to support a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition if they fail to reach a majority.

Elsewhere, the outgoing Coalition’s other party had a very bad day, with the Greens facing the prospect of potential electoral wipeout.

Other high-profile election casualties include outgoing Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, who looks certain to lose his seat in the redrawn Wicklow constituency. He was up against a returning Taoiseach Simon Harris, who looks likely to have a large enough vote to bring his Fine Gael running mate, Edward Timmins, into the Dáil with him.

Convicted criminal Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch is also in strong contention for the fourth seat in Dublin Central.

Asked about Mr Hutch’s potential election, Mr Harris said ‘whoever the people choose to elect is entirely a matter for them’.

Nov. 21, 2024. Independent candidate Gerry Hutch in his van during the general election campaign. Credit: RollingNews.ie

He added: ‘I remain to be convinced that he will be a TD. I think there’s a long way to go in relation to that. And as I talk to people on the ground in Dublin Central, and as I read the music, I don’t think he’s nailed on yet at all.’

Speaking about the election result, Mr Harris said after a bruising election campaign for him and Fine Gael he is looking forward to leading ‘a vastly different party’.

He said: ‘I said it is a good thing to be running new candidates, and that they were going to bring new experiences and new insights to Dáil Éireann. What is now absolutely certain, without knowing the final results, is that the Fine Gael parliamentary party now will contain so many new TDs, so many people who will bring new perspectives and new experience to Leinster House, and I’m really grateful to them for that.’

Mr Martin, the first party leader elected last night with 14,526 first preference votes, said ‘it feels good’ as Fianna Fáil looks set to return as the country’s biggest party.

The Tánaiste said he believes there is a ‘very clear route back to government’ but cautioned this is not ‘fully determined’, saying a lot would depend on final seat battles, which he said will be decided by transfers.

Ms McDonald said she wanted to talk to other parties on the left of the political spectrum about the potential for forming a government.

‘What we can say is that Sinn Féin, again, has a very strong mandate from the people,’ the Sinn Féin leader said.

‘What we can say is that other parties of the left, others that like us want change, similarly have secured a strong mandate, and my first port of call, my first conversations, will be with those other parties who, along with us, argued for change, argued for a change in housing policy’.

However, the pathway to power for Sinn Féin looks unlikely as the parties of the left will not have enough Dáil seats, while both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have categorically ruled out sharing power with it.

Nov. 30, 2024. Labour leader Ivana Bacik with Labour candidate Senator Marie Sherlock at the count centre in the RDS. Credit: RollingNews.ie

Of the smaller parties, both Labour and the Social Democrats are both on course to significantly increase their seats and potentially double their number of TDs.

Speaking at the RDS, Labour leader Ivana Bacik said her first intention is to speak to other parties that share Labour’s ‘visions and values’.

Social Democrats deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan said about talks with other parties:

‘We certainly intend on talking to the Labour Party and others over the coming weeks. That’s our intention.’

The fledgling Independent Ireland party was also celebrating a strong performance and was last night on track to double its existing three seats.

Aontú leader and the party’s sole TD, Peadar Tóibín, also hopes to double or treble their Dáil representation after a vigorous election campaign was rewarded with a significant increase in vote share.

* This article was originally published on Extra.ie.