Roisin Shortall (32%) and Fine Gael veteran Frances Fitzgerald (29%) are almost neck-and-neck to succeed outgoing President Michael D Higgins when he steps down after 14 years, the Amárach Research poll revealed.

More than one in five (21%) of voters would favor former Taoiseach [Irish leader] and Fianna Fáil leader Bertie Ahern to be the next president, while 18% want former Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams to be the next resident in Áras an Uachtaráin.

Roisin Shortall.

Roisin Shortall.

The poll of 1,000 people was taken between December 5 and 9, before the Social Democrats were engulfed in a scandal involving their newly elected and now-suspended TD [Teachta Dála / Member of parliament] Eoin Hayes, who lied about when he divested his shares in Palantir, a company that provides artificial intelligence tools to the Israel Defence Forces.

Ms Shortall did not contest the recent general election and stood down from national politics after being a TD, initially for the Labour Party, since 1992.

When contacted by the Mail, Ms Shortall said that she "hasn’t decided" what her next move will be.

"You have to see what support you have"

She emphasized that she wishes to take a break for a number of months before making any announcement on her future plans. Ms Shortall added: "It [the presidency] is not something I’ve thought about, I’m in the process of winding down and tying up loose ends after a long Dáil career. My intention is to take a break for three months, I haven’t taken any decisions on next steps. I have been asked about a number of roles so I’m just going to take a break and then decide."

The presidential election is scheduled to take place within 60 days of November 11, 2025. Candidates must be aged over 35 and can be nominated by receiving at least 20 nominations from sitting TDs or from at least four local authorities. A sitting President can self-nominate themselves, but as Mr Higgins has served two terms he is precluded from running for a third term for the role, which carries a salary of €332,017.

Of the nine Presidents since 1938, two women have served: Mary McAleese and Mary Robinson.

Frances Fitzgerald.

Frances Fitzgerald.

Many mooted prospective candidates have continually remained coy when questioned on their ambitions to get to the Áras.

Former taoiseach Mr Ahern said in July that if he enters the next presidential race he will be "running to win", although he added that he has not ruled a bid for the Áras in or out.

He said: "You have to see what kind of realistic support have you got and would you have your party’s nomination, what other heavies are in [the race].

"If I ever ran for it I’d be running to win and not to make up numbers and you have to judge all these things."

Prospective candidates

In November, when Mr Ahern appeared on RTÉ’s Upfront With Katie Hannon, he again refused to rule out running for the Áras.

Ex-Labour Party TD Ms Shortall founded the Social Democrats in 2015 alongside Catherine Murphy, after the former resigned as junior minister in the Department of Health in 2012 over what she claimed was a "lack of support" for reforms, following tensions with the then-health minister, James Reilly.

Since then, the Social Democrats, now led by Holly Cairns, have seen a surge in popularity and returned 11 seats in this year’s general election, an increase of five since 2020.

An analysis of the polling data shows that Ms Shortall is the most popular candidate (of the four offered by the pollsters) among all age groups with the exception of those over the age of 55. In that group, her support drops to 24%, compared to 38% for Ms Fitzgerald.

Bertie Ahern.

Bertie Ahern.

When it comes to young voters, Ms Shortall is by far the most popular candidate, with 37% of 18-to-24-yearolds and 35% of 25-to-34-year-olds saying they would vote for her.

Ms Shortall also outpolls Ms Fitzgerald in Dublin, Leinster (excluding Dublin) and Munster, but Ms Fitzgerald is more popular in Connacht/Ulster.

In Dublin 35% of voters support Ms Shortall, 30% opted for Ms Fitzgerald, 20% went for Mr Ahern and 16% backed Mr Adams.

In Leinster (excluding Dublin), 35% of voters support Ms Shortall, 30% Ms Fitzgerald, 21% Mr Ahern and 15% Mr Adams.

In Munster, the gaps narrow between the two front runners with 31% supporting Ms Shortall, 30% Ms Fitzgerald, 22% Mr Ahern and 17% Mr Adams.

In Connacht/Ulster, 28% of voters want Ms Fitzgerald as President, 26% support Mr Adams and backing for Ms Shortall and Mr Ahern is tied on 23%.

Ms Fitzgerald used the general election campaign to soft-launch her own presidential bid, according to senior figures within Fine Gael.

A long-standing member of Fine Gael, she served as a minister in multiple governments and was also an MEP. She had to resign from the justice ministry over her handling of the Maurice McCabe affair but subsequent events exonerated her.

She recently stood down as an MEP after serving one term in Brussels between 2019 and 2024. She has consistently refused to rule out a bid for the Áras when President Higgins’s term comes to an end next year.

One party veteran noted Ms Fitzgerald had been spending several days on the campaign trail with Taoiseach Mr Harris, meeting with key party members around the country.

"She's laying the groundwork"

They added: "Oh there’s no doubt about it, she’s laying the groundwork for a run at the Áras next year by going around the country meeting key people in the organization." Ms Fitzgerald was a political mentor to several high-profile Fine Gael figures, including Mr Harris and his predecessor as taoiseach, Leo Varadkar.

However, she rejected the characterization of her campaigning for Fine Gael in the election as a bid for the party’s nomination to run for President next year when contacted by this newspaper during the campaign.

She said: "That’s a bit premature and it’s nothing to do with that whatsoever. Obviously, I have always worked closely with the Taoiseach over the years, that’s why I’m doing that.

"I’m delighted to have the opportunity to canvass different parts of the country.

"It would be completely disingenuous for me or anyone else to say anything about another election when we are totally focused on this one. It’s an unnecessary remark to be honest."

Ms Fitzgerald said it would be a "complete distraction" to discuss a presidential bid during an election campaign.

She said she found canvassing "incredibly interesting", adding: "Some probably enjoy it more than others, but I really think it’s the essence of politics."

Ms Fitzgerald would have to first overcome the hurdle of her party’s internal convention contest to get her name on the ballot for the Áras race.

Long-time MEP Seán Kelly is also considering a bid for the presidency as is former European commissioner Mairéad McGuinness. Ms McGuinness, who did not seek another term as an MEP after her term as commissioner ended, previously contested for the Fine Gael nomination, losing out to Gay Mitchell.

 Outgoing Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys had been seen as one of the leading candidates to stand for Fine Gael in its bid to win the presidency for the first time.

However, she did not stand in the general election, citing her health and age and said she was "hanging up my political boots".

* This article was originally published on Extra.ie.