US election odds favor Trump: Is there still hope for Harris?

His 2024 presidential campaign is a testimony to this. His political journey is something never seen before in the US. This year, it is nothing less than a rollercoaster. If you viewed the presidential race through election odds, you have probably noticed just how much they have fluctuated (you can keep up to date with all the changes using the real-time election odds graph), reflecting bookmakers' views on Trump’s chances.

The Political Pulse: Tracking Odds in a Year of Uncertainty

From the start, our focus is going to be on Donald Trump. After all, his campaign lasted much longer than the one of Kamala Harris. The Democrat candidate didn't know she was in the running until a few months ago. Trump, on the other hand, has been campaigning for more than a year. It was a year of ups and downs, and the graph below shows just how high his amplitudes were and how low his depths were. Fluctuations were so high that, at times, even the ever-confident Trump doubted himself. In 2023, his candidacy was even in jeopardy due to legal issues, with things taking an u-turn in 2024, making him the frontrunner to enter the White House again. 

It was a tough path, filled with controversies, ups, downs, challenges, and obstacles, with the final one still standing before Donald Trump. Let's take a tour through his 2024 election campaign. 

Final Months of 2023 - Surfing The High Waves 

As 2023 was closing down, things looked grim for Donald Trump. Doubters were loud all over the place, screaming that Trump had no chance of winning. Why was the situation like this? It is rather simple. His legal issues were at the forefront of all media outlets. Indictments related to the January 6th unrest, classified document leaks, and different legal issues surmounted Trump and his campaign. With every news, headlines were doom and gloom about Trump. His campaign suffered blow after blow. Up to that point, Donald Trump was the leading Republican candidate. Late in 2023, the rumors that Ron DeSantis could take this mantle started to surface as his campaign started to receive traction.

Early 2024: Trump's Path to Redemption

Looking back, we can claim that 2023 was not Trump's year. As soon as 2024 took a turn, his fortunes changed. Once again, everyone and their mother were sure that Trump is the candidate Republicans want to represent them. The Republican primaries were dominated the same way LeBron James dominated the NBA in the last two decades if we're allowed to put King James in the same sentence as Donald Trump. Once the momentum was there, there was no stopping the ex-POTUS. Legal issues persisted, but so did the Trump supporters. MAGA was everywhere. Headlines were grim, but Trump was the sunshine GOP voters wanted to shine upon them. At one point, Trump took the lead, and Rob DeSantis couldn't keep up. At that point, it was evident that no one could stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Donald. While Trump holds most of the credit for his odds rising through the roof, a lot of it belongs to Joe Biden's quick deterioration, both mentally and in terms of approval ratings. We don't have to go into depth here. Biden's issues were inflation, economic challenges, foreign policy issues, and a generally worse administration than Trump's during his term in office. As Joe was going down, Donald was quickly rising! 

Spring to Summer 2024: The Twilight of Clarity

Spring was when things started to heat up even though there were a few months left till the hot summer. Odds graphs started to show just how massive the fluctuations of Trump's popularity were. Legal battles were still there, and at moments, it appeared that controversy simply wouldn't be leaving Donald Trump. Public perception was easily swung by every new development, which made the odds rise and fall. Controversies persisted, but so did Trump. GOP support all of a sudden appeared to be full. At the same time, Biden was still his old self, and his campaign was on track. Some polls even suggested that he is leading over Trump.

Everyone expected a close race at the time. During the Spring, it appeared that Republicans were backing Trump, while Democrats were fully behind Joe Biden. Another Trump vs. Biden duel was on the schedule. Betting odds didn't stand still during this period, even for a minute. His supporter base fully supported Trump, but it didn't keep the controversies far away, and every day, you could expect a new headline regarding a GOP candidate to steer the pot. 

Turning Legal Troubles into Polling Success

With each passing week, the confidence in Trump grew, and both polls and odds reflected this. During this period, the main turning point was the official Republican nomination Donald Trump received, not that it was ever in doubt. However, public opinion is a strange beast, and only after the official nomination was Trump able to go ahead full steam. At the same time, Biden was facing more and more difficulties. Inflation and a poor economy are not good friends to any president.  At this point, polls started to appear, and Donald Trump led them. The true power of his candidacy was seen in a couple of swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. 

If you're unfamiliar with how the US election works, let us tell you that fate often lies in the hands of swing states. They can tip the electoral college in either direction and they're not to be messed with, or in this case, lost during the election. 19 electoral votes from Pennsylvania paved the road to the White House. Back in 2020, Biden took Pennsylvania by the smallest of margins and Trump can't risk a similar outcome this time. Trump has the momentum, the one thing left is not to lose it. 

Another voting battleground on the map is Arizona. If we look back at past elections, and the ones before that, Arizona belongs to Republicans. But, back to 2020, Biden took AZ. This was an unpleasant surprise, but one Donald Trump won't allow again, and polls show this. The. Democratic hold on this desert state is weakened and the  GOP took full advantage of it. The situation is similar in Georgia, and these facts are something that Trump can look forward to when the election is decided on November 5th. 

With official polls bringing in such results, confidence in Trump is growing. Bookmakers are following this trend, and the odds are reflecting it. According to bookmakers, Trump could be the next US president. Once again! In no time, it became evident that his legal issues are behind him and that they pose no threat to his candidacy. Once people saw this, their confidence in him grew by the day. 

Fall 2024: Trump Seizes the Spotlight

September and October of 2024 were much better than even Donald Trump hoped. If you look at the graph below, you will see that his odds of winning improved regularly, and confidence in him to win heightened.  What made this shift so evident was the first presidential debate. Kamala Harris stepped up for Joe Biden at this point, but she was no match for Trump's aggressive approach. The best part was that the voters in the swing states reacted well to Trump's performance. The bookmakers quickly responded to Trump's rise in power and the odds further dropped. Autumn was Trump's; odds were 1.53 for all of you who love the decimals, and 5/7  if you love viewing them like this. 

If you're just now joining in the betting frenzy regarding the upcoming election, you ought to know that only a few days before the election, Trump is heavily favored to win. Looking back at how he was perceived only one year ago, you can see that he made an 180-degree turn. His ability to bring closer the voters from swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Florida made this possible. In most cases, these swing states make the president. The Kamala odds are at 2.6 or 8/5, making her the underdog. Despite these odds, she is still faring better than Joe Biden would in her place, we are sure of that. 

Kamala Harris's Odds for the 2024 Election

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in the same boat. The election day is nearing, and winning is paramount. With her odds set at 2.6 (8/5), Kamala is the underdog here. Yes, she has a chance to win, but at the moment Trump is the one favored to win. A few factors could turn the tides her way and put wind in her sails. Let's take a look at them.

Swing States: Is There Still Hope for Harris?

Yes, there is still hope for Harris. We are already used to having an interesting election day when Donald Trump is one of the candidates. It was like that in 2016 and 2020. It will be like that, this time around, we assure you. Like Trump, the key for Harris' win lies in the swing states. We said that Trump is now leading the polls in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, and these states are pivotal in winning the Electoral College. To have any chance of winning, Kamala Harris needs to penetrate these states and she needs to go deep up to the last voter. Plenty of undecided voters are left, and reaching them could be the swing she's looking for. In these undecided voters, Kamala finds optimism despite everything favoring Trump's win.

Last-Minute Surge

While the presidential debate did Kamala Harris no favors, it is not over yet. The polls, the odds, and it would appear that most people are against her, but it is not over yet. It is not over until the fat lady sings. Few upcoming events, rallies, and gatherings could help Kamala in her quest to become the first female president of the United States of America. But, the task ahead of her is a hard one. She needs to make a stand, perform, and resonate with the voting body that's not on her side yet. It is everything Trump has done in months past. It is not an easy task to provide an alternative to Donald Trump. The economy and healthcare is where she could find her strength to try and affect the current standing on the betting markets. 

What makes Harris' task harder is that she's trying to find success in Biden's shadow. His failures are on him, and the same goes for successes. This is the right moment to ride the wave of success Biden had in terms of climate action and job growth. Yet, the images of foreign policy failures and poor economic development are hanging over Kamala's head like the sword of Damocles. 

Kamala Harris has only a few days to make the last stand. Her shields are healthcare and climate change, while her sword is equality. In these areas, she can differentiate herself from Donald Trump.Her hidden card lies in aiming at a younger audience and minorities. With the election less than a week away, we're starting to fear that there's little time left to change anything drastically. 

Election Odds - The Winner? 

We can't declare the winner just yet. We told you that Donald Trump is the favorite and that Kamala Harris has an uphill battle to shift the odds in her favor. The margin is close, and it can be moved. We're looking forward to everything the candidates will do on the next day. Remember, there is no tie, no draw. Pick your candidate now!