When will Ireland form its new Government?

Ireland's Tánaiste Micheál Martin does not think the country will have a new Government in place before Christmas - while Taoiseach Simon Harris last week spoke about the impact President-elect Donald Trump could have on the timing.

Martin's party Fianna Fáil emerged with the most seats - 48 - of any party in the Irish General Election 2024.

However, despite winning the most seats, Fianna Fáil was still far off from claiming the 88 seats necessary to make a majority, meaning another coalition Government is likely in store for Ireland.

Discussions have begun amongst party leaders to see who can form a majority-winning coalition. The probability of a return to some sort of Fianna Fáil - Fine Gael coalition is high as together they have a combined 86 seats. 

Both parties have vowed not to go into a coalition with Sinn Féin, who emerged as the second-largest party with 39 seats, beating Fine Gael's 38 seats.

Sinn Féin, meanwhile, said on Monday it had contacted leaders of the Social Democrats and the Labour Party and that it would be contacting other "progressives" during the week.

According to the PA, the Tánaiste said on Tuesday in Dublin that most of the work to form a coalition could be done by Christmas but “we have to focus on the issues."

“I don’t think we will have reached agreement by Christmas,” he said.

“But I’m sure that most people in the country want us to form a Government as quickly as we can.”

Martin also refused to say which ministerial portfolios his party will want to take, saying he wants to “respect the process."

December 3, 2024: Tánaiste Micheál Martin at the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin. (RollingNews.ie)

The Trump impact

Last week, current Taoiseach Simon Harris, the leader of Fine Gael, touched upon the impact US President-elect Donald Trump will have on the timing of the formation of a new Government.

“My concern is this, Donald Trump becomes President of the United States in January," Harris told the Irish Mirror on November 28 before voters went to the polls on Friday for the Irish General Election 2024.

“I’d like if I had clarity that I was likely to be the Taoiseach. I’d like to be seeking an early meeting with President elect-Trump.

“I don't want to be waiting until someone's handing over shamrock in the White House next March. I want an early engagement with President-elect Trump before he even takes office, if possible.”

A few days earlier, the Taoiseach told Sky News that he was "preparing" Ireland for a possible "changed reality" regarding the economy when Trump begins his second presidency.

November 30, 2024: Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris arrives at the Shoreline count centre in Wicklow. (RollingNews.ie)

Meanwhile, a government official, speaking anonymously, told POLITICO on Tuesday that the choice of a “third leg to prop up the government stool” would add an edge to its Trump-era diplomacy.

“If we let the independents into government, we could have Cabinet ministers singing Trump’s praises,” the official said.

“If we get Labour on board, we could end up with Cabinet ministers calling him a fascist.

“We don’t really want either option. We want to keep our heads down as much as possible, and fight our corner as quietly and politely as possible, for the next four years - and just hope and pray our economy’s still going strong on the other side.”