The 2016 presidential election is over and Hillary has won.
There is no other interpretation possible given the slew of opinion polls this weekend showing her out of sight in key battlegrounds and ahead even in states such as Georgia and Arizona which have not voted Democratic in decades.
She’s even competitive in Utah and Missouri for heaven’s sake. If this keeps up Texas will be in play. Her margin nationwide right now looks like a seven percent lead.
CNN's "Poll of Polls" shows Clinton at 45%, Trump at 35%; Gary Johnson, 9%; Jill
— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) August 8, 2016
Stein, 5%. https://t.co/W4UQcbmJFv pic.twitter.com/rfat1TBLHE
Our latest polls-only forecast gives Clinton an 81.5% chance. Polls-plus puts it at 74.7%. https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/km4VJoE8RI
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 5, 2016
Trump, in his inimitable way, is already spinning his expected defeat, saying the system is rigged and the election will be stolen. He says there is widespread voter fraud but fails to show any examples.
He talks about the crowd at his events, but that is a novice mistake. In a country of over 300 million, turning out 10,000 voters in many locations means absolutely nothing. If there is one thing I have learned covering both Irish and US elections it is that crowd sizes do not matter. Otherwise Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee right now.
Lies, threats, bullying and more lies have got Trump to this point so he’s logically taking the next step where the falsehoods are larger because there is less and less proof to sustain them. He is rapidly descending into 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' territory where Humpty Dumpty remarks that words mean exactly what he wants them to mean – "neither no more nor less."
I will predict a blowout of about 40 states to ten for Hillary and believe I may be erring on the cautious side. Her poll lead is probably likely to expand to ten percent at least by the election.
Only one candidate has lost such a similar lead in modern times – Al Gore, who still won the popular vote in 2000 but proved to be the worst campaigner in modern history, stiff as a board and with all the charisma of a jellyfish and charm of a water snake.
Gore refused to use Bill Clinton on the campaign trail even after Clinton left office with a 65 percent approval rating despite Monica, a mistake that ranks right up there with John McCain selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Sure the media will continue to try and portray it as if it's a nail-bitingly close horse race (haven’t you heard of ratings folks?), but can you really see Donald Trump, with his limited grasp of policy details, out-debating Hillary in 2016 after she defeated Obama in most opinion polls in their 2008 debates?
Can you see him grab more of the black vote (0 percent in several states and the Hispanic vote as low as 17 percent in some polls) to form some kind of a coalition to come back into contention? Angry, old, white men seem to be his only truly loyal base and many of them may end shopping for Depends on election day if the deluge happens and they piss themselves.
All the Republicans have countered with so far is Benghazi all day, all the time. Someone should whisper in their ear that once the FBI did not indict her Benghazi was never going to be a game changer. Someone should also note that the GOP has thrown the kitchen sink, wall fittings, sofa and chairs and tables at the Clintons forever and have never stopped them winning a national or senate election.
Then there is the Washington Post's Trump book, due out shortly, which may lay bare all the facts on Trump's recent tax returns.
Now there’s a scandal waiting to happen and a final nail in the coffin of dastardly Donald if true.
David Axelrod, Obama’s guru, stated in a CNN column last week that running for president is like experiencing an MRI of the soul. Everything eventually comes out and the candidate is revealed in all their prejudice, passion and yes, stupidity.
That appears to be what has happened to Trump. He is undergoing a forensic character examination and being revealed as a pantomime figure utterly out of touch with what is needed to become president. Polls show white guys in America are the slowest to see that.
They really need a wake-up call.
New state polls:
PA Clinton +11
MI Clinton + 9 (4-way)
NH Clinton +17
NH Clinton +15 (4-way)
via @RealClearNews pic.twitter.com/2uIcZAry8A
— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) August 4, 2016
3 polls have Clinton at or exceeding 50% pic.twitter.com/aLmxDGiOX2
— Political Line (@PoliticalLine) August 2, 2016
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