First of all, I don’t think Donald Trump wakes up in the morning thinking of Ireland, except perhaps when he is contemplating his golf course in Doonbeg.
But like the rest of the world, President Trump’s re-election has implications for Ireland and also specifically for the prospect of Irish unity.
The current Irish coalition government is calling an election now because they believe they can project an offer of stability to the electorate, during a time of uncertainty. Sinn Féin’s difficulties are an added bonus from their perspective.
Trump will adopt an America First approach to trade. He will want to see US businesses onshore jobs which have gone overseas. Ireland has been incredibly successful in attracting FDI (foreign direct investment) over recent decades and our open island economy is particularly exposed to changing international trade conditions.
However, Ireland at least has the benefits of being part of the EU and the world’s largest single market. The British government will have to quickly decide how it is going to react to a potential tariff war between the US and the EU, when it is outside both markets.
We are also likely to see the increasing Trumpification of the British Tories under their new leader Kemi Badenoch. This has the potential to be very destabilising for British politics, especially when the current Labour government has become deeply unpopular within three months of taking office. The question is whether Northern Ireland Unionists seek to veer off on this far-right path or stick to the mainstream.
I believe that post-election analysis of the US Presidential election will show that Musk and his X platform played an outsized role in the campaign which was not reflected in the opinion polls. Musk has already criticised British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for decisions in the recent British budget. We are likely to see more of this in the future and the views of Reform MPs such as Nigel Farage being further amplified through the reach of his social media empire.
For those of us who wish to see the reunification of Ireland, there are important lessons. Hope and vibes may make you feel good about an election campaign, but that does not mean that it will be a winning one. People are still recovering from the trauma of the worst truly global pandemic for 100 years. They are understandably frustrated at the high cost of living, the lack of affordable housing, and a crumbling healthcare system. The majority of voters will decide with their wallet rather than their heart.
Reclaiming the fourth green field is important, but focusing on this alone will not lead to a successful border poll result. We need to show and convince people that voting for Irish unity will lead to a better quality of life for all.
It is important that we are honest with citizens that reunification will be a lengthy process that requires detailed planning in advance. The question is whether the next Government of Ireland is willing to start that process now.
While the Scottish National Party (SNP) may have lost support in Scotland, the population is still evenly split between those who favour and those against Scottish independence.
In Wales, Plaid Cymru, the party which wants to see Welsh independence, was only one point behind the governing Welsh Labour party in a recent opinion poll.
The Unionist majority in Northern Ireland has gone and while we do not yet have a Nationalist/Republican majority of elected representatives in Northern Ireland, there is increasing potential of holding and winning a border poll in the next decade.
However, this will depend on whether the next Irish Government wants to seize the opportunity, or watch history develop as a mere bystander. Ireland’s budget surplus of billions and Britain’s attempt to close a £40Bn shortfall is just one example of how now is the time to start the process of reunification. This will not happen overnight, but we need to start preparations now and plan for winning the referendum.
Trump is someone who relishes the prospect of making deals and he wants Brexit to be a success. So we will see renewed interest in a US trade deal with Britain, especially as there will be a Republican majority in the US Senate.
The British government will also want to show that Britain remains relevant in international trade. While Starmer in opposition was deeply opposed to the UK leaving the EU, as Prime Minister, he has repeatedly stated that the UK will not be rejoining the Single Market or Customs Union, never mind the EU.
We need to convince the Trump administration and the British Government that the best way of enabling Brexit to be a success is to facilitate Irish unity. This will free up Britain to agree trade deals unfettered by the restrictions which result from Northern Ireland having access to the Europe Single Market for goods while still being part of the UK, under the Windsor Framework.
We must continue to ensure that Ireland and Irish unity has bipartisan support in the USA. The peace process and the Good Friday Agreement received cross-party support in both the USA and Britain. There needs to be focused engagement with both countries to build the same support for reunification, so that when it happens, everyone can claim part of the victory.
*This article was originally published on IrishBorderPoll.com. Ben Collins is the author of "Irish Unity: Time To Prepare."
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