Two things I never do at the start of a New Year: predictions and resolutions.
Resolutions fall by the wayside as old habits regroup. Predictions never fully pan out. The unexpected can and will happen.
Choices will have unforeseen consequences. And 2024 will be a year of choices that will define the coming years.
This year will likely see general elections in Britain and the South of Ireland. I say likely, as both the British and Irish Governments have home team advantage in terms of setting an election date. Elections must be held before the Spring of 2025. Neither are likely to plan an election in the first months of next year.
There are also elections set for June in the South of Ireland for local councils and the EU Parliament.
The Irish Government is also planning to hold a referendum to amend an archaic constitutional definition of the role of women in the home. Their replacement wording, which was leaked to the media, has failed to inspire and will no doubt be contested. Under referendum rules, equal time and support have to be given to both sides of the constitutional plebiscite.
This is also an election year in the US. By the end of the year, there could be new Irish and British Governments, significant changes in the EU parliament and Commission, and changes in both houses of Congress and the Administration.
All of these choices are in the hands of the people. Those choices will have fundamental impacts on Ireland, Anglo-Irish relations, and Irish-American relations as well as the wider European and global community.
The coming Irish general election could be historic. Last time out, Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party. A position that they have consolidated. Until then, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had controlled both government and opposition since the foundation of the state. Following that election, both entered government as part of a coalition with the Green party. Their common policy objective was to keep Sinn Féin out.
Mary Lou McDonald became the first woman and the first Sinn Féin president to lead the official opposition. Since then, support for the party has grown. The Sinn Féin president has not hidden the party's ambition to lead a government, preferably without Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. In doing so, she would become the first woman to be Taoiseach in the first Sinn Féin-led government. It would be an opportunity to break from the past.
The party is also confident in gaining ground in the local and European elections in the South.
The European parliamentary elections are held on the same week across the member states. There has been a rise of reactionary right-wing parties in Italy, Holland, and Germany.
The EU faces continued challenges with the war in Ukraine, a lack of consensus on a ceasefire in the siege of Gaza, and expansion plans with additional states wishing to join. It remains to be seen how these elections will pan out. The parliament and commission are facing significant strategic challenges that will define the EU project for decades to come.
One thing is for certain, Britain will not have a say. As a consequence of the choice of Brexit, they have left the Parliament and Commission. The British Labour Party has maintained a significant lead over the governing Tory Party. It has been 12 years since the last Labour Government. Given the extent of the Labour Party's lead and the daily scandals and dysfunctions of the current government, it seems that Labour is well-placed to win. This has led to the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer taking conservative and cautious positions on most issues. The party appears to rely on voters' opposition to the Tories more than articulating what the Labour Party stands for. It remains to be seen what difference a Labour-led government will make with regards to policy in Ireland and the EU.
One of the first things to land on the new Prime Minister's desk will be defending the current British government's Legacy Legislation in the European Court of Human Rights. The outgoing government passed the law that ends police and police ombudsman investigations into actions during the conflict. It blocks the right to inquests and access to the courts for those bereaved. It has been opposed by the victims, all parties in Ireland, and human rights organizations.
It was also opposed by the British Labour Party in Westminster. Just before Christmas, the Irish Government initiated an inter-state case against the British Government's Legacy law in the European Courts. It is expected that the case will be heard within the next two years. The choice facing Keir Starmer will be to defend in government a law that is inconsistent with the Good Friday Agreement and that he opposed or stand by his word and revoke the law and return to the existing governmental and cross-party Stormont House Agreement.
The election calculations will be playing out within the Democratic Unionist Party. They have seats at Westminster to defend at a time when they block government formation in the North and possible changes of governments in London and Dublin.
Despite its grand title, the largest unionist party has a selective approach to democracy. 18 months ago, the vast majority of voters supported a return to government in Stormont. Sinn Féin became the largest party in the jurisdiction and Michelle O’Neill the First Minister-elect. The DUP has refused to respect these results and continues to block the government. It appears that sharing power with an Irish Republican First Minister is a step too far for some elements of their party.
The DUP are masters at only making a decision when they absolutely have to; when the alternative to doing nothing comes at a cost to their party. Over the past 18 months, they have been facilitated by the British Government. The cost has been paid by the public, the economy, and confidence in the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement.
The DUP has not moved despite a change in presentation. The party made infamous for saying “no” has presented itself over the past 18 months as the party of “no, but maybe." It is well past decision time for the DUP. The two outgoing governments should now set out how North/South and the devolved institutions will be operated, and the Agreement protected in the absence of the DUP and a functioning Executive.
The DUP will do what the DUP will do. It is up to either the outgoing or incoming governments to progress the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement.
Regardless of the election outcomes, the case for Irish Unity continues. The genie is out of the bottle, the debate is now live in homes, academia, and the legal, arts, and business communities. It is an exciting time.
A Sinn Féin-led government in Dublin will prepare, plan, and advocate for unity. A Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael government may continue to prevaricate.
The election outcome may accelerate or slow the progress, but it cannot be stopped.
An Irish government planning and preparing for unity is a constitutional and political imperative. Everyone agrees that referendums are coming. The sensible thing to do would be to plan and prepare. An Irish Government leading on the issue would be a game changer north and south, between Britain and Ireland and internationally.
Unity referendums, the right of the people who share the island to define their constitutional future, are a foundation of the Good Friday Agreement.
It is not a point of contention. It is part of the agreement and a settled matter. It binds the British Government to act with rigorous impartiality in the discussion and to act on the outcome of the referendums.
The discussions will continue to grow across Ireland and the US.
In a world in which the international order has broken down, Ireland and our peace process can continue to act as a beacon of hope.
Managing the process of change is a crucial challenge to the incoming governments. Honoring agreements and laws, respecting democracy, and vindicating rights remain the means to assert the primacy of politics over conflict. That has been the lesson of the Irish Peace Process. The current impasse can and will be overcome when governments return to those principles.
This year will be a year of choices for people and governments. I cannot predict what the end of the year will look like, but I hope those in power remember the lessons of the past and commit to a better future for all. I am confident that whatever the outcome of the elections in the US, Ireland will continue to have a partner for peace.
*Ciarán Quinn is Sinn Fein representative to US.
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